Very interesting background and analysis, as always.

Here's another scenario, based on post-Civil War history.

It didn't take long after the beginnings of Reconstruction for the secessionist states to drive out Black elected officials, disenfranchise Black voters, and initiate repressive Jim Crow laws that would hold sway for almost a century. Lynchings helped reinforce state-ruled tyranny.

The Reconstruction era was also the source of an orchestrated campaign of fake history (not just the weepy Lost Cause apologetics, but their enshrinement by the Dunning School of Biased Historiography--I was required to read "The Tragic Era" in high school).

Georgia Republicans are at this moment seeking to inhibit absentee voting because in-person voting favors Republican voters (the claims of voter fraud are baseless, except in the eyes of the most tunnel-visioned partisans).

Republican state legislatures throughout the country are maintaining or increasing voter inequity through gerrymandering.

And there is the notorious case of Texas seeking to overturn the votes in blue states (so much for states' rights).

In a way, it would be better for these states to actually secede from the Union than to remain and eat away at the Constitutional rights of all citizens, while pretending to preserve the values of the country's founders.